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FOOD FOR THOUGHT
TIME FOR SOMETHING DIFFERENT
The climate emergency is precisely the type of issue – long-term, complex – where
far- sighted leadership from elected officials is at a premium. But the world
has waited long enough for that leadership, and it is time for citizens to take
the helm before it is too late…
If Americans take the next step and ask, “OK, what do we do now?” they encounter
five other truths, most of them also inconvenient. But these truths do tell us
what must be done, and by when.
First, the United States is a quarter-century late in responding to global warming;
serious climate change is already underway and requires action now, not later.
There were warnings from the scientific community as early as 1979 and many in
the 1980s. We Americans frittered away that chance to respond, and here is what
we are up against now. To avoid leaving a ruined world to our children, the international
community is going to have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 60 percent
globally and 80 percent in the United States and other developed countries, both
by 2050. To do this, global emissions must peak about 2020 and decline steadily
thereafter. Developed country emissions should already be declining. The United
States is clearly on the wrong path. The U.S. Energy Information Administration
projects that both U.S. coal use and carbon dioxide emissions are currently slated
to increase by 40 percent by 2030. Bottom line: the issue is not only real and
important – it is genuinely urgent. The actions taken in the next few years will
be critical.
Second, it would be comforting to think that the international community used the last
two decades to build up an effective international framework for climate action
– comforting, but wrong. Scholars have lately been developing the concept of treaty
“ossification.” The example they cite? The climate treaty and its well-known offspring,
the Kyoto Protocol. One reason is that the North-South divide has deepened in
the negotiations. There has been no agreement yet on how to achieve equity in
the greenhouse. Another reason, of course, is U.S. intransigence. Bottom line:
a huge effort is now required from the United States and others to revitalize
international negotiations with the aim of moving beyond the Kyoto Protocol and
realizing emissions cuts such as those just mentioned. Perhaps a group of eminent
international leaders outside of government should negotiate a model agreement
to show that it can be done.
Third, though there are modest stirrings in the U.S. Congress, real action from elected
officials in Washington is nowhere near. Moreover, despite vigorous maneuvering
by the Bush Administration to fend off any meaningful steps to address this looming
disaster, our political leaders and others in Washington are not being held accountable
for failing to address a threat as serious as that of terrorism. The media still
treat the climate issue primarily as a scientific, technical one. Bottom line:
it is time for climate change to become highly salient in electoral politics.
Those Americans alarmed about climate change – and that should be all of us –
can start voting the issue in this year’s national elections in November.
Fourth, even though the U.S. public is now aware of the issue, there are only the earliest
signs of a popular movement for change. The climate emergency is precisely the
type of issue – long-term, complex – where far-sighted leadership from elected
officials is at a premium. But the world has waited long enough for that leadership,
and it is time for citizens to take the helm before it is too late. Bottom line:
it is important to transform the new public awareness into a popular movement.
Remember: climate change was also a Time cover story in the mid-1980’s, but no
movement resulted.
Finally, the good news. The world is awash with major technological and commercial opportunities and
excellent policy prescriptions to mitigate climate change – all that is needed
to reverse the threatening trends and prevent the direst predictions from coming
to pass. And many U.S. cities, states and businesses are already showing Washington
the way. Indeed, the goal in California is precisely that noted above – an 80
percent reduction in emissions by 2050, and California has now taken the first
step towards that goal by committing to return its total emissions to 1990 levels
by 2020. Bottom line: our greatest gift to the new generation can be a world sustained
and whole. But only if the United States and the international community act now.
The default option is a ruined world.
 James Gustave Speth is the Dean and Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy,Yale University.
From 1993 to 1999, Dean Speth served as administrator of the United Nations Development
Programme and chair of the UN Development Group. Prior to his service at the UN,
he was founder and president of the World Resources Institute; chairman of the
U.S. Council on Environmental Quality; and cofounder of the Natural Resources
Defense Council. Publications include Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis
of the Global Environment, and Worlds Apart: Globalization and the Environment.
Throughout his career, Dean Speth has provided leadership and entrepreneurial
initiatives to many task forces and committees, including the President’s Task
Force on Global Resources and Environment. The opinions expressed here are his personal views.
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